Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX, has offered his perspective on why Bitcoin has recently experienced a significant decline. According to Hayes, the 25% drop in Bitcoin’s price since early October is not caused by changing political messages or global events but by a contraction in U.S. dollar liquidity.
In simple terms, there is less cash flowing through the financial system, which affects how investors buy and sell assets like Bitcoin. Hayes describes Bitcoin as a “free-market weathervane of global fiat liquidity,” meaning its price often reflects expectations about future money supply.
Hayes uses an interesting analogy to explain market behavior. He compares the unpredictability of early-season winter storms in Hokkaido, Japan, to the way traders interpret economic signals. Just like skiers make decisions with incomplete information, investors must often act on limited or uncertain data. This, Hayes argues, helps explain why Bitcoin can experience sharp swings even when there is no major political change.
Earlier in the year, following the U.S. “Liberation Day” market events on April 2, Hayes predicted that Bitcoin would rally strongly. He believed that fiscal stimulus and supportive government policies would drive prices higher. Initially, his prediction seemed accurate. Bitcoin rose about 21%, and investor interest in altcoins like Ether increased. However, the rally stalled, and the cryptocurrency started to fall, eventually losing roughly a quarter of its value.
One of the main reasons for the price decline, Hayes explains, is related to ETF trading and the activity of large investment companies known as Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs). Many hedge funds were engaging in a strategy called a basis trade, where they bought spot Bitcoin ETFs while shorting Bitcoin futures. These trades temporarily boosted ETF inflows but did not represent long-term buying.
When the spreads narrowed, hedge funds reduced their positions, causing outflows from ETFs. DATs also slowed down their purchases as premiums on their shares fell below net asset value. Together, these factors exposed the underlying liquidity challenges in the market.
Looking ahead, Hayes believes that the trajectory of Bitcoin and other markets will depend on whether the U.S. government injects new liquidity. Political pressure, particularly before the 2026 midterm elections, may push policymakers to release more stimulus despite their public focus on controlling inflation. While short-term price drops are likely, Hayes remains optimistic about the long-term outlook. He expects that continued money creation will eventually support Bitcoin and other digital assets.
All in all, the recent Bitcoin slump is largely a result of liquidity challenges rather than political events. Temporary inflows from ETFs and institutional investors may have masked the problem, but the market ultimately adjusted to reflect the shortage of cash. For investors, understanding these liquidity dynamics is key to making sense of Bitcoin’s recent volatility.
For companies like Riot Blockchain Inc. (NASDAQ: RIOT) that have been around for a long time, such market reversals aren’t new and the firms are likely to ride this one out without being scathed.
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