The 2025 holiday shopping season is expected to bring steady growth for ecommerce, even as overall retail sales slow down compared to last year. A new forecast from Deloitte shows that online holiday sales between November 2025 and January 2026 could grow between 7% and 9% compared to the same period in 2024. If these projections hold true, ecommerce sales could reach between $305 billion and $310.7 billion. This would continue the trend of online shopping outpacing total retail sales growth year after year.
Deloitte’s forecast also shows that overall retail sales, including both online and in-store purchases, will rise by a smaller margin of 2.9% to 3.4%. That would bring total holiday spending to around $1.61 trillion to $1.62 trillion. While this is still an increase, it is a slower pace than the 4.2% growth seen in 2024. Analysts say that consumer spending power will play a major role in shaping this year’s results.
A key factor in Deloitte’s projection is disposable personal income, or DPI, which measures how much money people have left after taxes. DPI is expected to grow between 3.1% and 5.4% during the holiday period. According to Deloitte’s economists, DPI is a strong indicator of retail sales performance because it determines how much consumers can spend on gifts and other seasonal purchases.
This year’s holiday season will take place in an environment marked by economic uncertainty and global trade disputes. Tariffs have caused retailers to raise prices, and many shoppers have already noticed the increase in everyday items. Despite these challenges, Deloitte believes consumers will continue to show resilience. Many are likely to turn to online shopping and digital deals to get the most value for their money.
The busiest shopping days, often referred to as Cyber 5, from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday, are expected to remain a key driver of sales activity. Deloitte suggests that retailers who can offer attractive discounts and maintain good inventory levels will be in the best position to capture customer demand.
Although inflation is expected to affect the volume of goods sold, it could also push the total dollar value of holiday purchases higher. This means that even if shoppers buy fewer items, the overall sales numbers may still rise. Deloitte’s outlook signals that the shift toward ecommerce remains strong, and businesses that continue to focus on delivering value and convenience could see another profitable holiday season in 2025.
You can bet that sellers on ecommerce platforms run by companies like Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE: BABA) are gearing up to extract maximum benefit from this upcoming shopping season.
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