Experts Urge Caution as Bitcoin Starts December on a Losing Streak

The Fear & Greed Index dropped to 9 in November, its lowest ever in the history of crypto. The expected “Updecember” surge in crypto didn’t happen and many are wondering whether there has been a change in trend or this is a mere market correction before the Bitcoin surge continues. Several experts shared their views on the subject and we capture what some of them had to say.

The founder and CEO of Stabolut, Eneko Knorr, says the month of December and January are likely to play a decisive role in the crypto market. He says that the fact that the price of BTC is hovering around $90,000 after rising to more than $126,000 suggests that there is still ample runway for upward movement. However, these two months will decide if this price increase gains traction or sellers win the battle and drive the price down.

Bakkt International’s President Phillip Lord agrees and thinks Bitcoin could continue its upward climb after this temporary correction. He points out that sellers and buyers appear to be at a stalemate, so caution is called for as the market establishes a clear direction. He suggests that crypto could be on the precipice of upward movement in its supercycle, but this isn’t certain as yet.

Lord draws attention to another key dynamic in the market, the role that institutional players are playing. He says these large players may currently be reallocating their capital, which is why the expected price rise in November didn’t happen. Institutional players could have changed the fundamental structure of the market, and retail investors aren’t aware of this change. Consequently, those who expected a rally got their hands burned after failing to account for the role of institutional players, especially in the ETF segment.

Michael Howell, a liquidity expert, says the current events in the market can be explained from a liquidity perspective. He says that Bitcoin has a high correlation with global liquidity and the crypto’s price tends to rise whenever global money supply is high, and then drops when liquidity is tight. This happens for all risk assets, such as stocks.

Howell says the price of BTC often acts as a leading indicator for what will be seen in the global liquidity index about 10 weeks later, so the current drop in Bitcoin’s price points to tightening liquidity in markets. He expects a liquidity injection in Q2 2026, and this could lift BTC upwards. If money supply continues to tighten, BTC could continue to struggle.

All in all, investors need to keep a close eye on several macroeconomic factors and injections into crypto ETFs in the coming months. Liquidity also needs to be tracked to get a feel for where cryptos are going. Exchanges like Coinbase Global Inc. (NASDAQ: COIN) are likely to crunch these numbers frequently to glean what the near-term trajectory of BTC is likely to be.

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