Holiday shopping is set to reach new heights this year as online sales are expected to hit a record $253.4 billion, according to Adobe’s latest forecast. Covering the period between November 1 and December 31, this marks a 5.3 percent increase compared to last year. The report shows that mobile phones, artificial intelligence, social media, and generous discounts are shaping how Americans shop online during the festive season.
A major share of the sales will happen during Cyber Week, which includes Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday. Adobe predicts that shoppers will spend 43.7 billion dollars in those five days alone, accounting for more than 17 percent of total holiday sales. Cyber Monday will remain the biggest shopping day, bringing in 14.2 billion dollars, while Black Friday will follow closely with 11.7 billion dollars. Thanksgiving Day sales are also expected to grow, reaching 6.4 billion dollars.
One of the biggest changes this year is the rise of mobile shopping. For the first time, more than half of all online purchases will be made using mobile devices. Adobe expects 56.1 percent of total spending, or 142.7 billion dollars, to come from phones and tablets. This is a major shift from 2020 when mobile shopping made up just 40 percent of all holiday ecommerce activity.
The “Buy Now, Pay Later” trend is also gaining ground as more shoppers use it to manage their budgets. Adobe projects that Buy Now, Pay Later purchases will total $20.2 billion this season, growing by 11 percent from last year. On Cyber Monday alone, these transactions will exceed one billion dollars, with most of them made through mobile devices.
Retailers are not waiting for November to roll out their offers. October discounts and events like Amazon’s Prime Day are expected to spark early holiday shopping. Consumers are likely to spend around nine billion dollars during the first week of October, taking advantage of average discounts of 17 percent. Many are also using these price cuts to buy premium products, especially in electronics, sporting goods, and home appliances.
Electronics, clothing, and home goods are expected to lead in sales, while groceries and cosmetics will see the fastest growth. Popular items include new gaming consoles, the latest smartphones, and trending beauty and toy products.
Artificial intelligence and social media are also changing how people discover and choose what to buy. More consumers are using AI tools to search for gift ideas and find the best deals, while social media platforms are becoming major sources of shopping inspiration. Together, these trends show that the 2025 holiday season will not only break sales records but also reshape how people shop online.
Major e-commerce players like Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE: BABA) are likely to be testing and fine-tuning their systems to take full advantage of this shopping season.
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